State budget expenditures in Kazakhstan once again exceeded revenues. In January–July of this year, the government earned 16.4 trillion tenge but spent 17.5 trillion tenge. According to the Ministry of Finance, the deficit exceeded 1.5 trillion tenge. This is slightly lower than in the same period of 2024, when the shortfall surpassed 1.7 trillion tenge by the end of July.
At the same time, overall macroeconomic indicators this year show solid performance: GDP grew by 9.3%, while industrial output rose by 6.9%.
State budget revenues over the seven months increased by 12.6%, while expenditures grew by just 9%. Several sectors of the economy drove this rise in spending. Social assistance and welfare expenditures increased by 374 billion tenge to 3.9 trillion tenge. Spending on education rose by 286 billion tenge to 4 trillion tenge, while housing and utilities expenditures climbed by 230 billion tenge to 1.1 trillion tenge. Debt servicing stood out in particular: in January–July 2025, spending in this category rose by 19.1% year-on-year to 2 trillion tenge.
Budget deficits are nothing new for Kazakhstan. The gap between revenues and expenditures has persisted for several years. In 2024, the deficit reached 3.6 trillion tenge, the highest level in recent years. However, according to the Ministry of Finance’s budget forecast for 2026–2030, the deficit is expected to gradually narrow starting in 2027 — first to 3.5 trillion tenge, then to 2.2 trillion tenge a year later. By 2029, the gap between spending and revenues may shrink to just 1 trillion tenge, with plans to eliminate it entirely by 2030. This scenario relies on strong revenue growth from tax collections and more restrained spending ambitions.
